BNN - The Week Ahead: What's cooking at Tim's?

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Engaging the Issues

BNN - The Week Ahead: What's cooking at Tim's?
By Noah Zivitz, Assignment Editor
November 3, 2008


Got a political gripe? Or maybe it's time for some armchair quarterbacking after your team blew another one? Need to commiserate with someone else about the plundering your portfolio has suffered? Join the club.

Sure, you could find some like-minded folks online. I hear Facebook is the place to be these days. But if some actual face-time is what you crave, there's that bastion of Canadiana folks from coast to coast to coast have a habit of flocking to.

"Tim Hortons resonates with Canadians because of an accumulation of very sure-footed steps," said Rick Wolfe, president of PostStone Corporation.

He lists "solid" food offerings at reasonable prices and a track record of corporate social responsibility as just two of the factors that have made the company part of the fabric of the country. And in a hockey-mad nation, it doesn't hurt to carry the name of a one-time Toronto Maple Leaf.

But what happens when the economic tide turns? Before the peak of the credit crisis, before the economic gloom and doom became the top story night after night on the news, before Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned of sluggish growth that will put Canada on the edge of a recession, the brain trust at Tim Hortons was already bracing itself.

"The state of the macro environment and resulting sales climate continues to be challenging, and we will be diligent and actively monitor the situation," said president and chief executive officer Dan Schroeder on Aug. 7, when the company announced a 13-percent jump in its second quarter operating profit.

That all sounds well and good, but what can they do to stay lean and mean, and keep the lineups long when the economy takes a turn for the worse?

It comes down to being sensitive to pricing and offering attractive promotions, according to Wolfe. "This kind of economy is great for Tim Hortons, it is very well-placed to do well in a soft economy."

With 2,851 locations across Canada (as of the end of June), there's a good chance that if you're reading this from north of the U.S. border you're within spitting distance of one of its stores.

There's also the American toehold. By the time a recent agreement to get 82 of its banners inside the Tops Friendly Markets grocery chain is completed, Tim Hortons will be closing in on its 500th U.S. restaurant, with the heaviest clusters in New York state and the Midwest manufacturing hubs of Ohio and Michigan.

But make no mistake about it, the heavy lifting is done this side of the border. In fact, in the second quarter Canada provided all of the operating profit, while the stateside segment posted a $190,000 loss. So is this going to be the tale of another failed Canadian foray into the United States?

Rick Pennycooke, president of Lakeshore Group, a retail development consultancy firm, doubts Tim Hortons will become a nationwide phenomenon in the U.S., but he gave a thumbs-up to the company's methodical approach to stateside expansion.

"I like their very slow approach. Despite how successful they've been in Canada, they resisted the temptation to make a giant splash down there."

As far as what's on the menu, there's a lot more to Tim Hortons these days than double-doubles and fried dough. The company's move into the realm of hot sandwiches signalled its intent to mark its territory beyond the breakfast rush where it is the dominant force in Canada. According to Genuity Capital Markets, Tim Hortons commands 63.9 percent of Canadian quick service restaurant breakfast traffic, while McDonald's places a distant second.

Meanwhile, with Tim's having just 17 percent of the lunchtime traffic, Genuity analyst Candice Williams figures this represents the company's best opportunity for growth. But just as Tim Hortons attempts to steal some business away from the competition, it, too, will need to defend its ground, as McDonald's tries to assert itself as a java force to be reckoned with after launching an aggressive marketing blitz for its premium coffee this summer.

"With a comparatively lower price point than Tim Hortons and a series of very positive reviews regarding the quality of the offering, this [McDonald's] campaign could prove to be a nuisance for Tim Hortons in the coming two quarters," Williams wrote in late October, when she initiated coverage of Tim Hortons with a "hold" recommendation and a $30 price target (the stock closed at $29.31 Thursday).

The big question these days for companies that count on Main Street is at what point their customers' psyches and pocketbooks will have taken enough of a beating from the economic tumult that they cut down on discretionary spending.

A cup of coffee on the way in to work is one of life's little luxuries; at a certain point, do-it-yourself roasting makes more (dollars and) sense. Canadian consumers haven't hit that point yet, according to TD Bank senior economist Beata Caranci. But she said the mood can change in a hurry.

"We are being bombarded by the media headlines so it could be a confidence issue soon."

In a recent report to clients, CIBC World Markets analyst Perry Caicco said despite the onset of a "severe downturn" in consumer spending that will pose "enormous" challenges, Tim Hortons is in a sweet spot.

"Sales, if anything, are likely to hold up pretty well, as Tim Hortons' Canadian devotees will likely remain loyal even in the worst times, and customers seeking a value food service experience could shift to Tim's from other brands."

Tim Hortons is scheduled to report its third-quarter results Friday, Nov. 7. Analysts polled by Thomson ONE are expecting profit of $0.41 per share.

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